INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMACY

Dhaka pushes for fresh investment and a Teesta breakthrough as PM Tarique Rahman heads to Beijing this week

Dhaka, June 21 — By Sabita Bint Azad Shifa.

Half a century after Dhaka and Beijing first shook hands in 1975, the Bangladesh–China relationship is entering one of its busiest stretches yet. With Prime Minister Tarique Rahman departing this weekend on his first overseas tour since taking office — stopping in Malaysia before a high-profile three-day visit to China — both capitals are signaling that economic cooperation, not just diplomatic courtesy, will define the next phase of the partnership.

A Friendship Measured in Numbers

The two countries formally elevated their ties to a «comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership» following President Xi Jinping’s 2016 visit to Dhaka and deepened that framework further in 2024. Today, the relationship runs on hard figures as much as rhetoric:

·         Bilateral trade stands at roughly $10 billion a year, though heavily lopsided — Bangladesh imports about $8 billion worth of Chinese goods against only $2 billion in exports, leaving a stubborn trade deficit that Dhaka is now actively trying to narrow.

·         Tariff access: Since 2020, China has granted duty-free entry to 97 percent of Bangladeshi products (8,256 of 8,549 tariff lines), and from December 2024 extended zero-tariff treatment to all goods from least-developed countries with which it holds diplomatic ties — a category that includes Bangladesh.

·         Belt and Road pledges: Of an estimated $40 billion in investment commitments made under the Belt and Road Initiative since Bangladesh joined in 2016, only around $4.45 billion had been disbursed as of the most recent Chinese Embassy figures, spread across roughly 40 active or planned projects — chiefly in transport, energy and power infrastructure.

·         Flagship project: The Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone in Anwara, Chattogram, launched during Xi’s 2016 visit, spent nearly nine years stalled over developer disagreements and approval delays before recent signs of movement.

·         Trade fairs and exchange: At this month’s China–South Asia Expo in Kunming, Bangladesh fielded its largest-ever delegation — 101 institutions and 175 representatives — showcasing garments, pharmaceuticals, jute, leather and plastics to Yunnan’s business community.

The Week Ahead: A Six-Day Diplomatic Sprint

Tarique Rahman’s trip, beginning Sunday, is built around two stops. In Kuala Lumpur he meets Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to discuss trade and labour migration, before flying on to China on Monday at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

In China, the itinerary is dense. The prime minister first joins the World Economic Forum’s 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions — the «Summer Davos» — in Dalian from June 23 to 25, an event expected to draw more than 1,700 delegates from over 90 countries under the theme «Innovating at Scale.» He then travels to Beijing for talks with Premier Li on June 25 and a meeting with President Xi Jinping on June 26, alongside an investment summit where he is scheduled to meet representatives of major Chinese firms including Chery, Honda and Chinatex.

According to Foreign Secretary Asad Alam Siam, Dhaka and Beijing are expected to conclude between 15 and 17 bilateral instruments during the visit — understood to include 13 memorandums of understanding, two agreements, one action plan and one protocol, covering green energy, electric vehicles, solar power, modernisation of Mongla Port, media cooperation, training programmes and Chattogram’s economic zone.

Teesta Returns to the Table

Perhaps the most closely watched item is the long-stalled Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project, under discussion with China since 2014. Officials say talks this week are likely to centre on feasibility rather than financing, given the project’s geopolitical sensitivity and India’s objections to a major Chinese footprint near its northeastern corridor. Analysts have suggested Dhaka could eventually pursue a joint-venture model — bringing in partners such as Japan alongside China — to ease those tensions rather than financing the barrage through Beijing alone.

Bangladesh is also reportedly weighing formal entry into China’s Global Development Initiative, a framework aligned with the UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals that has already drawn roughly 82 countries, mostly from the Global South. The previous government kept its distance from the initiative; the current administration appears more open, with a foreign ministry official describing China as possessing both the capital and technical expertise Bangladesh needs for its development push.

Dhaka is also expected to press for easier terms on existing Chinese loans — specifically lower interest rates and longer repayment and grace periods — as the country continues to manage external debt pressures following its 2024 political transition.

Reading the Wider Picture

The visit lands at a delicate moment. Ties between Dhaka and New Delhi have improved somewhat since the new government took office in February but remain strained over border issues and migration disputes. Analysts argue the China trip — set against an Indian invitation that arrived earlier but was scheduled later — reflects Dhaka’s effort to balance competing regional relationships rather than tilt decisively toward any single power.

University of Dhaka development studies professor Asif Shahan noted that the dual Malaysia–China itinerary is «as much economic as diplomatic,» with China viewed primarily as a source of investment and Malaysia as an outlet for overseas employment.

On the security side, cooperation continues quietly alongside the economic push. Bangladesh has in recent months received Chinese-made VT5 light tanks under a second army order, and Beijing has formally invited Dhaka to join its International Alliance Combating Telecom and Cyber Fraud — a proposal currently under review at the Home Ministry, which is also revisiting a lapsed law-enforcement training agreement between the two countries.

What Comes Next

Beyond this week’s summitry, the Chinese Enterprises Association in Bangladesh has forecast that bilateral trade and investment will «expand substantially» over the coming decade, spreading beyond traditional garments and infrastructure into manufacturing, digital services, high-tech industry and sustainable projects. Its president has also urged both governments to accelerate negotiations on a long-discussed Free Trade Agreement, calling progress with China «relatively slow» compared with Bangladesh’s parallel talks with other trading partners.

For now, the immediate marker of momentum will be how many of the 15-to-17 instruments are actually signed in Beijing this week, and whether the Teesta talks move from feasibility discussions toward an actual financing framework — the question that has hung over the project for more than a decade.

What is clear is that fifty years after establishing ties, Bangladesh and China are recalibrating their partnership for a new political era in Dhaka, with both sides treating this week’s visit as an early test of how much substance follows the symbolism.

— International Desk, Bangladesh | Sabita Binta Azad Shifa is an International Relations expert and diplomatic correspondent specializing in Asian, American, Russian, Chinese, Emirati, and African affairs, including BRICS. A former Lecturer at the University of Information Technology & Sciences (UITS) in Dhaka, Sabita currently serves the country’s largest education group as the Senior Coordinator for Training & Development at STS Group.

By: Sabita Binta Azad Shifa

Sabita Binta Azad Shifa is a Bangladeshi expert in international relations, with research and writing interests in South Asian geopolitics, regional security, and diplomacy. She has published extensively on strategic and public policy issues and previously served as a university lecturer. She currently works in the field of soft skills and professional development. Her work has received international recognition, including her selection as one of the 50 Global Women by the world’s largest nuclear organization.