For over a decade, Otralectura.com has investigated the issues of Yemen and Somalia through interviews, reports, and articles. However, this December 2025, everything is taking a dramatic turn.

Given the real-time developments, we publish this analysis today on the Yemeni and Somali crises.

Yemen: The Unending War

1. Separatist Offensive and Risk of Total War
On December 2, 2025, the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) escalated its military campaign in Hadramaut, consolidating control over southern Yemen. This move openly challenges the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which operates from Aden and Riyadh under Saudi protection. Saudi Arabia has responded with airstrikes and threats of escalation, fearing that the country’s fragmentation could strengthen the Iranian-backed Houthis in the north.

2. Roots of the Crisis

• Legacy of Division: North Yemen and South Yemen remained separate until 1990. Reunification never resolved tensions between the historically dominant northern elites and the marginalized, resentful southern elites.
• Multifactional Civil War: Since 2014, Yemen has fractured among the Saudi-backed legitimate government, the Iranian-aligned Houthis, the UAE-supported STC, and jihadist groups. The Saudi-led intervention in 2015, paradoxically, worsened fragmentation by incentivizing rival factions.
• Strategic Interests: The UAE seeks to control ports like Aden and Mukalla to secure trade routes and counter Iranian influence. However, its support for the STC clashes with Saudi Arabia’s goal of maintaining a unified Yemen.

3. International Warnings
The Arab League has called for dialogue, but its members are divided: Qatar and Oman maintain channels with the Houthis, while Egypt and Jordan back the Saudi coalition. The U.S. and UK, though focused on safeguarding Red Sea maritime traffic, avoid direct involvement in internal conflicts.

Somaliland: A Rule-Breaking Recognition

1. Israel Shatters the Taboo
On December 26, 2025, Israel became the first country to officially recognize Somaliland, defying the international consensus upholding Somalia’s territorial integrity since 1991. This move—linked to security agreements and port access—has sparked a diplomatic crisis:

• Strong Reactions: Somalia denounced the recognition as an «aggression,» while the African Union (AU) warned of a «domino effect» in a continent with dozens of separatist movements.
• Israel’s Geopolitical Gambit: By recognizing Somaliland, Israel aims to gain allies near the strategic Red Sea, counter Turkish and Qatari influence in Somalia, establish a foothold to combat Somali pirates and Al-Qaeda, and position itself against Iranian-aligned Houthis, who have targeted Israeli interests.

2. Somaliland vs. Somalia: A Sovereignty Clash

• De Facto State: Somaliland, independent de facto since 1991, boasts functional institutions, democratic elections, and relative stability—unlike chaotic Somalia. Its claim rests on British colonial borders, distinct from Italian Somaliland.
• Puntland’s Role: This autonomous region claims parts of Somaliland and advocates for federalism within Somalia, further complicating the situation.

3. Ethiopia’s Interests and Regional Risks
Ethiopia’s 2024 deal with Somaliland for access to Berbera port reflects its need for a sea outlet after Eritrea’s 1993 independence. However, Somali pressure forced Ethiopia to soften its stance, though Israel’s recognition could reignite tensions.

Global Implications: Sovereignty vs. Realpolitik

1. Yemen: Toward Balkanization?
The STC’s offensive could cement a tripartite split: Houthi-controlled north, separatist south, and a residual government. This would benefit the UAE and Iran but heighten instability in the Red Sea, critical for global energy trade.

2. Somaliland: A Dangerous Precedent?
Israel’s recognition challenges the «territorial integrity» principle upheld by the AU and UN. If others follow (e.g., Taiwan or Kenya), it could destabilize Africa’s postcolonial order, fueling conflicts in regions like the Sahel or Congo.

3. The Role of Global Powers

• China and Russia: Closely monitor Somaliland’s crisis, seeking opportunities to expand port influence (e.g., China’s Djibouti base).
• United States: Prioritizes Red Sea maritime security but avoids taking sides in territorial disputes, maintaining calculated ambiguity despite its summer 2025 strikes against Houthi targets.

Conclusion: A World of Accelerating Fractures

December 2025 marks a tipping point in two forgotten conflicts. In Yemen, the civil war enters a new phase of fragmentation, with regional powers vying for influence. In Somaliland, Israel’s recognition defies geopolitical taboos, offering hope to independence movements but risking a wave of instability. In both cases, the international community faces a dilemma: uphold sovereignty principles or adapt to shifting territorial realities. The response will define the future of an increasingly fractured Middle East and Horn of Africa.