The geopolitics of the Middle East is in constant evolution, and Saudi Arabia finds itself at the center of this transformation. With a regional environment marked by tensions and conflicts, the kingdom has begun to reconsider its role on the international stage and solidify its position in the face of various challenges along its borders, as well as the influence of non-state actors.

Threats on the Border with Yemen and Iraq

The situation in Yemen has been a critical point for Saudi Arabia since the conflict began in 2014. The advance of the Houthi movement, backed by Iran, has destabilized the region, endangering Saudi national security. Riyadh has been involved in an intense military campaign to counter this threat, but the conflict has proven to be more complicated than expected, with a high human and material cost.

On the other hand, the border with Iraq presents its own set of challenges. With the influence of Shiite militias operating in the region and the instability caused by the previous presence of ISIS, Saudi Arabia faces a volatile security landscape that demands strategic and diplomatic solutions.

Tension with Qatar

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been tense since the Gulf crisis erupted in 2017. Qatar’s stance of supporting Islamist movements and its close relations with Iran have generated distrust in Riyadh. Although there has been a slight reconciliation, differences in their foreign policies and approaches to extremism persist, and Saudi Arabia must maintain a delicate balance in its diplomacy to ensure its influence in the region.

The Fall of Bashar al-Assad and HTS

The Syrian conflict has had profound implications for the stability of the region. The fall of Bashar al-Assad opened a power vacuum that was filled by groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which represents a direct threat to Saudi interests. Saudi Arabia has supported various opposition groups, but the complexity of the conflict and the presence of actors like Russia, Turkey, and Iran further complicate the situation. Saudi Arabia must cautiously consider its steps to promote change in Syria without further destabilizing the region.

Especially with the Turkish victory, Iran’s exit from the Syrian and Lebanese stage, the rise of Israel, and Ankara’s influence over the Euphrates region represent a direct threat to Saudi Arabia as the central axis of the Islamic world and, also, the Arab world at a time when socialist pan-Arabism has died, and Saudi Arabia is attempting to create a traditional pan-Arabism in contrast to Erdogan’s pan-Islamist – Ottoman Turkish model.

In addition, Trump’s victory, which comes with more strength than ever, heralds real changes in the Middle East.

The Kurds and the East of the Euphrates

In the east of the Euphrates River, the Kurdish presence, especially through self-defense forces, continues to be a destabilizing factor in the context of independence aspirations and the desire to enter negotiations on self-governance. The Kurds have been strategic allies of the United States in the fight against ISIS, but their strength may pose a challenge to Saudi interests, which seek to limit the influence of Iran and other actors in the region.

Strengthening Saudi Arabia in the 21st Century

In response to all these challenges, Saudi Arabia is undergoing a transformation process aimed at strengthening its geopolitical and economic position. Through Vision 2030, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has proposed an ambitious program to diversify the country’s economy and reduce its dependence on oil. This includes investments in technology, tourism, and renewable energy, as well as promoting social reforms aimed at modernizing the country.

Riyadh is also focusing on strengthening its alliances with other Arab nations and global powers, seeking to consolidate a stronger regional block that can face external threats and promote stability in the region.

Conclusion

The geopolitical transformation of Saudi Arabia is a complex and multifaceted process unfolding in a constantly dynamic environment. With borders filled with challenges and a need to adapt to the changes of the 21st century, the kingdom is forced to be proactive in building its internal strength and its foreign relationships. Its ability to navigate these challenges will determine not only its future but also that of the entire Middle East region, as this area cannot exist without a strong, independent, modern, and stable Saudi Arabia, and only the Saudi dynasty can achieve these objectives, as Mohammed Bin Salman is currently doing.

Sources

«The New Geopolitics of the Gulf» – Foreign Affairs (2017)
This article explores the dynamics of power in the Persian Gulf, including the tensions between Saudi Arabia and its neighbors, as well as their implications for regional politics.

«Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030: The Road to Transformation» – The Middle East Institute (2020)
This source provides a detailed analysis of Vision 2030 and Saudi Arabia’s efforts to diversify its economy and address geopolitical challenges.

«Yemen: The Conflict and Its Regional Implications» – The International Crisis Group (2019)
This report discusses the crisis in Yemen, the impact of the Saudi intervention, and the repercussions of the war on regional politics.

«The Impact of the Syrian Civil War on the Middle East» – Brookings Institution (2018)
This document examines how the Syrian conflict has affected international relations in the Middle East, including the implications for Saudi Arabia.

«The Future of the Kurds in Iraq and Syria» – The Atlantic Council (2021)
This source analyzes the situation of the Kurds east of the Euphrates and how their strengthening may influence regional geopolitics, including Saudi Arabia’s stance toward these actors.