It might seem incredible that a small country like Georgia could generate so much tension in Russia, but that is not unreasonable. Georgia’s geographical position in the southern Caucasus, an area that is always complicated for Russia, the first station of the Transcaucasian projection and towards the Middle East, and the projection to the Black Sea, makes Georgia a delicate issue for Russia, which is under constant siege by the West.

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Relations between Georgia and Russia have historically been tense, affected by territorial conflicts, political influences, and Tbilisi’s aspirations for European integration. Since the 2008 war over South Ossetia, Adjara, and Abkhazia, which resulted in Russia’s recognition of the independence of these regions, the dynamics between the two countries have been characterized by continuous distrust and confrontation. Especially in the context of the recent tensions in 2024, it is essential to analyze the various facets of this relationship and its geopolitical implications.

The 2024 crisis in Georgia has been catalyzed by a series of internal and external factors that have led the country to a political crossroads. The elections held in 2024 were marked by allegations of irregularities, a polarized political environment, and notable social discontent. Protests erupted in several cities, reflecting a deep sense of frustration among those who believe that the government has prioritized its pro-Western inclinations and has surrendered to the dangerous dreams and illusions of the EU and NATO that pushed Ukraine into a war for nothing when Georgia must address its local concerns.

Meanwhile, Russia has intensified its activities in the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, entering a climate of tension due to the activation of all Russian fronts by the West to disperse troops and ignite the Russian borders. The Russian military presence in South Ossetia and Abkhazia acts as a constant reminder of the influence that Moscow still exerts over Georgia and its foreign policy. This state of affairs has generated fears of a possible escalation in the conflict, fueling anxieties about an open war similar to that of 2008.

The causes of the crisis are multifaceted. On one hand, the Georgian government faces economic and social challenges, with growing discontent about corruption and economic management, as well as economic ties with Russia. On the other hand, Russian surveillance of Georgia further complicates the political landscape.

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Georgia has sought to align itself with Western institutions, identifying the European Union and NATO as its main integration objectives. The desire to join NATO is driven by the perception of a need for security against what they see as an existential threat from Russia, a perception that has been promoted by Western powers. According to the National Security Report of Georgia, the country firmly sees its path towards NATO as a fundamental strategy to secure its sovereignty and territorial integrity (source: Ministry of Defense of Georgia, 2023).

The Georgian government has been working hard to meet NATO accession requirements and has actively participated in military exercises with U.S. forces and other NATO troops. This collaboration not only seeks to strengthen Georgia’s defensive capabilities but also sends a clear message to Russia that integration into Western structures is an unwavering goal.

In addition to NATO, Georgia has also placed a strong emphasis on integration with the EU, seeing it as an opportunity to promote political and economic reforms. The Eastern Partnership, an EU initiative aimed at strengthening ties with Eastern European countries, has provided Georgia with a platform to advance its reform agenda and come closer to European norms and regulations.

Georgia’s aspirations to join NATO and the EU have not gone unnoticed by Russia, which views such moves as a direct threat to its borders in the Caucasus. NATO’s expansion towards its borders represents a strategic encirclement that could limit its projection of power in the Black Sea region, vital for its economic and military interests.

The Black Sea region is key for Russia for multiple reasons. Besides serving as a gateway to international markets, the Black Sea is also a strategically significant area from a military viewpoint. With control of Crimea, Russia has been able to consolidate its naval presence and increase its capacity to project power in the area. The possibility of a Georgia aligned with NATO would imply that Russia would be deprived of an ally in the region, significantly altering the balance of power.

In response to these threats, Russia has conducted multiple military exercises in the region and has increased its military presence in border areas. The militarization of the waters of the Black Sea and the increase in Chinese naval activity, from which Russia has benefited, reflect a change in dynamics regarding the strategic balance in the Black Sea. This has contributed to an environment of uncertainty and tension, where each action is seen as a move in a broader geopolitical chess game.

Relations between Georgia and Russia continue to be complicated and emotionally charged, especially at a time when Georgia is experiencing an internal crisis that could redefine its future. The 2024 crisis not only represents a challenge for the Georgian government but also reflects broader dynamics of geopolitics in the Caucasus and the Black Sea. The victory of Georgian Dream, a «catch-all» party identified as pro-Russian, ignited protests in Tbilisi last October and led to large demonstrations in a failed new attempt at a Ukrainian-style «Euromaidan.»

Georgia’s ongoing pursuit of integrating its political and economic trajectories into Western alliances starkly contrasts with the stance of a significant portion of the population and political parties, which see an association with Europe and NATO as counterproductive in the face of a country like Russia, vast but offering substantial geopolitical and economic possibilities. As a Georgian oligarchy continues to pursue its ambitions toward the EU and NATO, an inevitable confrontation looms with those local Georgians who are pro-Russian and seek stability.

Ahmet Davutoglu, the former Turkish foreign minister, in his book Strategic Depth: Turkey’s International Position (published in 2001), made it clear that the best strategy for stabilizing Turkey was to maintain good relations with its neighbors. Georgia should apply this principle and get along with Russia, the neighbor with which it shares its northern border. This does not imply that Georgia should be isolated in a time of global exchanges, but what shouldn’t be done, for political responsibility, is to have relationships that jeopardize the security of a neighbor, especially under these circumstances.

The evolution of this situation will depend on both internal decisions made within Georgia and Russia’s strategic maneuvers in the region. As both countries navigate these turbulent waters, the future of the Caucasus and the stability of the Black Sea will be marked by the interaction between the aspirations of a Georgia that wishes to be part of the West and a Russia that seeks not to cede ground in what it considers a strategic point, especially after losing influence in Armenia. This is a scenario that will continue to unfold, and its repercussions will have lasting effects on European geopolitics and beyond. (Foto: Wikipedia)

Sources:

Tagma, S. (2023). «The Black Sea Security Dilemma: Russia’s Perspective». Security Studies, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 512-530. This article offers insights into the geopolitical importance of the Black Sea for Russia and its response to NATO’s eastward expansion.

Ministry of Defense of Georgia. (2023). National Security Report of Georgia. This document provides a detailed overview of defense strategies and Georgia’s aspirations towards NATO and the EU.

Nodia, G. (2023). «Georgia and the Challenges of NATO Membership». Geopolitics, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 55-71. This article analyzes Georgia’s aspirations to join NATO and how they have affected its relations with Russia.

Kakachia, K., & Zourabichvili, T. (2022). «The Impact of Internal Politics on Georgia-Russia Relations». Journal of Eurasian Studies, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 120-134. This study examines how internal political changes in Georgia influence its relationship with Russia.

International Crisis Group. (2024). Georgia: The Risks of Political Instability. This report evaluates the current political situation in Georgia, internal tensions, and the impact of relations with Russia.